Original writing by Pavel Sokolovsky.
23 posts
I notice a lot of fear-mongering online about AI leading to human doom is making people nervous. It’s clear why: predictions come from people who are held in high esteem by the media, with brand affiliations to today’s hottest tech companies, or from academics or other luminaries. And…
I was contemplating a minor business problem with a colleague. He sat quietly while a stream of words came out of my mouth. Eventually he commented that we were both thinking, but he was doing so in his head while I was doing so out loud. I think…
On January 1st, I woke up hangover-free and mostly recovered from a brief illness. I had a nagging thought. For several weeks since Charlie Munger died, I had a desire to find my copy of Poor Charlie’s Almanack. It had been packed away in a box some years…
I met an entrepreneur who is in the early stages of building a business. They asked whether I had any tips for them. I had to decline, as I’ve learned to avoid tips since my Entrepreneurs Organization initiation a decade ago. I learned that business advice can cause…
They say time kills all deals. Salespeople know this saying well, as they probably use it more than anyone else. They design sales processes with it in mind. But I notice it even when nobody’s driving a sales process. Somewhat regularly, I get in a long line to…
When we moved in to our new home in Austin a few years ago, I was gung-ho on installing smart home devices everywhere. I never fully realized my vision, but I did manage to change the exterior locks. I discovered one was failing when I couldn’t remotely unlock…
This week, I had a chance to call references for a candidate who is on track to join our team. I really enjoy these calls because I get to learn on a few different levels. I get to learn about the candidate from people who have worked with…
About a week ago our daughter confidently declared that people named Ian always copy—that’s just what they do! We’ve been reading the children’s book Olivia to her for years. Early in the book, we’re introduced to Olivia’s family. “Olivia has a little brother named Ian. He's always copying.”…
My first recession. After the last big crisis in '08, it took me many years to recover a positive outlook. I was years too late. I like to think of myself as an opportunistic buyer who knows when he's looking at a good deal. But I guess I…
To invest money in a business during its infancy means taking a fair amount of risk — there's a good chance you'll never see that money again. Often early-stage investors will talk about developing conviction. It's (almost) a prerequisite to really believe in the company and the team…
September 2021: the 35x I passed on I passed on a startup investment in 2016. They were building something a bit esoteric, but I understood its value. The market needed what they had, and I expected that market to grow. I passed because I thought their product was…
A decade ago, I spent a meaningful part of my work time writing code. In part because doing it myself saved money, and in part because I really love the work. If you've ever done a sort of creative work that requires tooling, you know that the environment…
Work in process. In manufacturing, there are three types of inventory: raw materials, work in process and finished goods. Even though I've never worked in manufacturing, I think a lot about work in process. I like to apply the concept to work more broadly. The excel file I…
"Error bars are graphical representations of the variability of data and used on graphs to indicate the error or uncertainty in a reported measurement." (Source: Wikipedia) When we make predictions or estimates, it's helpful to recognize that there's an error rate. Some predictions are more prone to error…
Am I making it different or making it better? I didn't always wonder this, but nowadays I do. When I'm holding the editor's red pen, my tendency is to use it liberally. At first, each idea that flows from my mind feels like a gem I've found laying…
George has been a mentor since early in my career. During a call long ago, I outlined my ongoing initiatives. He said, "You know, Pavel, one of these days remind me to teach you about focus." We had a neat opportunity for a marketing initiative this week. It's…
I had a professor in college who taught me two valuable lessons. Lesson one began when I bolted up to him after class to argue about a grade. I had been arguing in my head since he handed out the results so proceeded to escalate the argument now…
As the end of 2020 approaches, I find myself in an optimistic mood. There are so many reasons to be optimistic. One that I have thought about a few times this year is global connectedness. I'm not talking about Facebook walls or kumbaya spirituality, though both might have…
One evening this week, Kim brought up a topic that I spent about a minute confidently opining on until I finished my thought with, "actually, I have no idea what I'm talking about." It felt good to both recognize and acknowledge that fact so promptly. How often am…
I'm thinking about habits because I've been off course for a few weeks in my work and I finally managed to get back on track. Ruts persist because feedback loops are powerful Habits are a feedback loop consisting of cue, routine, and reward (credit: Charles Duhigg, The Power…
In software, we tend to label unwanted or unexpected behavior as bugs. Funny programmers will, however, proclaim their bugs are actually "undocumented features." Sometimes the line between feature and bug is blurry. I read of an old video game that would crash unexpectedly when the player pressed the…
My daughter Petra prefers to wash her hands with cold water. I encouraged her to use warmer water, telling her it gets her hands cleaner. Kim overheard me and asked, "Is that actually true?" It's something we had learned as conventional wisdom, but she wondered if either of…
When I was a youngster, I would labor at the keyboard of our family computer trying to make it do as I said. You might say I “taught myself” how to program. What does that really mean? It means I learned by borrowing others’ code and asking the…