My first recession. After the last big crisis in ’08, it took me many years to recover a positive outlook. I was years too late. I like to think of myself as an opportunistic buyer who knows when he’s looking at a good deal. But I guess I wasn’t. I waited for the other shoe to drop for too long. I often wonder why. Possibly because I found myself surrounded by gloomy news. The construction industry I worked in was hit hard, so every day I was surrounded by the worst of it. The media I consumed amplified the scariest of the economic news. I was young and impressionable, and it was my first recession.
Their first recession. I often consider that the next recession will be the first one for so many among us. It’s been a long while since the recovery from the housing crash. Many business leaders of my generation have never experienced a recession. Some are certainly as overconfident as I was once was about my readiness to buy at a good price. I underweighted the impact of gloomy times.
Prepare for gloomy times. You might have noticed that market prices have come down across so many types of assets. I do not assume that the worst of it is over. Not only can the numbers all go down further, but the conversation can also turn much more negative. On March 15, 2020 I wrote about the then-novel coronavirus taking over the mindshare of the world.
During the 2008 economic crisis it was hard to stay cool-headed amidst the omnipresent doom and gloom chatter. Today I am slightly better educated about my human psychology. I know that I will, by default, overweight the importance of what I hear most frequently. I hope to do a better job of clear, independent thinking this time around. “If you’re going through hell, keep going.” Now feels like a great time to consider the quote from Winston Churchill that reminds us to maintain perspective and forward progress.