I notice a lot of fear-mongering online about AI leading to human doom is making people nervous. It’s clear why: predictions come from people who are held in high esteem by the media, with brand affiliations to today’s hottest tech companies, or from academics or other luminaries. And they are often scary! But one thing I like to keep in mind whenever the wave of online attention coalesces to reinforce a singular narrative: there’s usually more to the story, and the story is not usually the lasting truth of the matter. In this case, there are a couple of aspects to the story that are not as well-covered.
First, there’s money involved! As a rule, when there’s money involved, it drives behavior. Sometimes it’s subtle, often it’s blunt. In this case, there’s a LOT of money involved, and a lot of people telling stories about why they don’t care about it. I don’t really buy it. I think it’s unlikely that the actors with the most impact on the narrative of AI, who have the most control over the business of AI, are not bending their behaviors toward financial outcomes. While they might convince themselves or others that the financial outcomes are just a means to an end, so that they can do more good in the world, I must still conclude “players gonna play”.
Not all doom comes from the commercial AI leaders. What about the others, those who are not positioned to make money from AI lab stock? The long-tenured AI researchers with a consistent message of doom? They are not immune to incentives, though they may not be as obviously pecuniary. Publicity, relevance, ego. In any case, I believe that they believe their prophecies! Yet, I do take comfort in the fact that doomers have always existed and yet never in the history of humanity have they been right.
How does scary AI doom lead to financial gains? The two largest players in the AI game are still closely-held private corporations. (Remember when one used to be a non-profit? 🫠). But they won’t be for long…
Most people haven’t been invited to the party yet! Can you think of a better way to prime the public to buy stock than a daily media deluge that reinforces them as all-powerful? One might think, “well, it’s all-powerful in a bad way,” but I suspect that the good or bad framing is way less important than the powerful framing.
Oh, and one more thing. Take note that the market-leading incumbents are all calling for regulation! Of course, it’s for the benefit of all society so that runaway AI doesn’t destroy us all. But do note that regulation happens to favor market-leading incumbents.
AGI sure seems to be coming. It will have a lot of impact on society and the economy. It might somehow kill us all. But long before then it’s going to be an economic catalyst for the players in the game, and the zeitgeist in the media has always been a lever of that game more so than a neutral marketplace of ideas.
Keep reading, but keep your defenses up!